If China were coerced into really large appreciations of the renminbi, it could face the same deflationary fate as Japan in the1980s and 1990s -- and all this without reducing its trade surplus, said Ronald McKinnon in an article published Wednesday by The Wall Street Journal.  

The U.S. current account deficit simply reflects the excess of expenditures in the United States relative to income, or, equivalently, the amount by which America's moderate level of investment exceeds its very low saving rate -- both by households and the federal government, McKinnon said in the article titled The Worth of the Dollar.  

So the first order of business in correcting the trade deficit is to reduce the structural fiscal deficit of the United States and possibly run with surpluses.  

The second order of business is to provide incentives -- possibly tax incentives -- for American households to increase their saving.  

Both require major changes in U.S. public finances and should be phased in gradually but very deliberately, said the professor.  

However, this is not the end of the story. To work smoothly, adjustment has to be two-sided, McKinnon said.  

The East Asian countries with large saving and trade surpluses, notably China and Japan (also Germany and various oil producing emirates), must move to increase consumption in parallel with American efforts to reduce consumption.  

McKinnon said that some people worry that if Washington was to move unilaterally to raise tax and reduce private consumption, aggregate demand would be insufficient. U.S. households would no longer be consumers of last resort for the world at large. Thus unilateral moves by Washington to contract consumption, unless done very gradually, could foment a world-wide slump.  

However, if contraction in the United States was offset by expansion elsewhere, such problems would be minimal -- and trade imbalances could be reduced more quickly.  

In neither case, however, would any substantial change in the dollar's exchange rate be necessary or desirable, said McKinnon.  

In considering China's (and other Asian countries') trade surpluses, McKinnon said, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson should not reach for the wrong instrument -- particularly one that is based on faulty theorizing.  

McKinnon said that a major reduction in the RMB value of the U.S. dollar will not correct the saving imbalance between the two countries.  

However, it could cause a major bout of monetary instability with deflationary consequences in China itself, the professor said.  

And if China is the linchpin, such that other countries in Asia and even Europe follow with their own appreciations against the dollar, the inflationary pigeons may well some home to roost in the United States -- as in the 1970s, McKinnon said.

给中国施压使人民币对美元增值不会对减少美国贸易赤字有所帮助，斯坦福大学的一位经济学教授在周三说。

“如果中国真的被强制大幅度升值人民币，它将面对象日本80年代和90年代一样的通货膨胀，但这些不会减少它的贸易顺差“，Ronald McKinnon 在 Wall Street Journal.周三发表的一篇文章中说。美国目前的财政赤字简单反映了美国的开支要远远超出收入，同样的，在美国，无论是家庭还是政府稳定的投资远远超出很低的存款率， McKinnon 在他的一篇名为“美元的价值”中说到。所以转变贸易赤字的第一步就是减少美国财政结构性的赤字，转向贸易顺差。第二步是采取一定的激励措施，可能的税金激励，让美国的家庭增加他们的储蓄。在两方面同样主要的美国公共财政情况的改变和将被逐步分阶段采用但要非常含蓄,教授说.但是，这并不是故事的结尾。一般来讲，调整会有两方面的作用，McKinnon说。“东亚国家大量的储蓄和贸易顺差，尤其是中国和日本，（德国和生产石油的阿拉伯酋长国），在美国减少消费的同时必须增长消费量。 McKinnon说一些人担心如果华盛顿片面的提高税收，减少私人消费，总的需求将会不足。美国的家庭不再是世界巨大持续的消费群体，因此片面的减少华盛顿的消费，很可能的，会引发世界经济的萎靡。但是如果美国的短缺被其他地方的消费膨胀所抵消，这样的问题将会减少到最小，贸易不平衡也会减少的更快。 “但是无论在哪个方面美元兑换率的改变都是必要而且令人愉悦的“。McKinnon说。考虑到中国和亚洲其他国家的贸易顺差，McKinnon说，美国财政部秘书长 Henry Paulson不能采取错误的手段，尤其是在错误理论基础上的。McKinnon说美元对人民币的升值不会改变两国储蓄的不平衡。但是，它将会造成中国货币的不稳定性及通货膨胀.教授说．如果说中国是关键的话，亚洲的其他一些国家，甚至欧洲的货币也会对美圆升值，造成大规模的通货膨胀，就象在７０年代一样，最后在美国结束＂．McKinnon说.